What began as a simple Facebook message may represent a key moment in indicating the future of television. This message from Netflix founder Reed Hastings congratulates CCO Ted Sarandos while also acknowledging a special milestone for the disruptive on-demand video service. The milestone was the achievement of 1 billion viewing hours for the month of June. Using that figure, BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield came to purport that if Netflix was a standard television station, it would be the most watched network on TV. Based on Greenfiled’s estimates each Netflix subscriber watched an average of 80 minutes per day in the 30 day month. It is worth noting that on-demand television, like the standard cable product is seasonal; however their peaks of popularity offset one another.
This does however raise an interesting question; just how big will Netflix be? There are a couple of things that must be considered, the first of which is the actual decline in television ownership in North America. According to Horizon Media’s TV households (defined as a home with at least one TV capable of receiving at minimum one television channel) are down to levels last seen in the 1970’s. A fair deal of that can be attributed to people who have elected to opt for Netflix, a less costly alternative.
Beyond that, Netflix and on-demand viewing has always had the benefit of fitting around individual and collective schedules better than anything else. This in concert with the bevy of quality films and more importantly television shows has allowed people to follow their favourite shows on their own terms. This is also something that points towards a stronger future for Netflix; the popularity of their television viewing has increased considerably year over year. A recent Neilson study revealed that the number of people who preferred using Netflix for television rather than film increased from 8% to 19%. That’s a considerable number of individuals considering the service’s 26 million subscribers worldwide.
The final and perhaps most important fact to be considered is that Netflix and other on-demand providers such as Revision3 have begun to create their own exclusive content, effectively becoming their own television networks. Netflix has developed three of their own original shows; even debuting one of them, called Lillyhammer earlier this year. They have also secured the reboot of popular sitcom Arrested Development, which stars Jason Bateman, Canadian Michael Cera and executive produced by Ron Howard.
Netflix has even reportedly won back a lot of people who have left the service, perhaps indicating that resistance may eventually prove futile.
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